The NI power-bloc.
I’m sure you know by now, but in this hung parliament the magic number is 326. This is the number of MPs a coalition needs to just about get a mandate to govern. Labour and the Lib Dems currently have a modest 315 when they bring whats left of their parties together.
So where do they pick up the remaining 11?
In Northern Ireland of course.
And god bless having to do deals with ulstermen and women…eh Mr Clarke?
Nationalists and Unionists have been crowing on about unity for weeks now. It was rejected out of hand by the electorate on Thursday… but now is the time for a different type of unity in our wee country.
So here are the figures.
Labour – 258
Liberal Democrats – 57
NI ‘unity’ power-bloc
DUP – 8
SDLP – 3
Alliance – 1
Lady Sylvia Hermon – 1
Total – 328
And it’s not inconceivable either. The SDLP have already confirmed they follow Labour. Alliance have had strong links with the Lib Dems since the 70s. The DUP flushed human rights down the drain in exchange for a moratorium on water charges, proving they have no problem wheeling and dealing with Labour, and Lady Sylvia, well, she might do it as an ‘anything but the tories’ move.
So there you go, The Northern Irish Electoral power-bloc. United in theory, but divided by so much.
The Plan. #geni
I’ll be working in conjunction with UTV tonight, coverage which can be found at http://www.u.tv/Election2010/
UTV will also be running a live blog here which will pull in constituency updates, coverage of the declarations, and short videos from across Northern Ireland’s count centres. The live map will keep you updated with the results as they come in.
I’ll be at the Kings Hall covering West and South Belfast, before heading to the Valley Leisure Centre in Newtownabbey to watch as North Belfast, South Antrim and East Antrim come in.
We’re trying to do something a bit different which makes you the audience at home feel more involved in tonight’s process.
As the night progresses I’ll be feeding short video clips into the UTV live blog.
I’ll let people know where I am and if there are questions you want directed at candidates or parties then send a tweet to @UTVElection, @keithbelfast or email me keithjpanderson (AT) gmail.com
Try and pose questions relevant to the election, this isn’t an excuse to rehash old debates but a chance to get answers on the night.
I’ll then upload the outcome on the UTV liveblog for you to watch.
This is the definition of interactive. It gives you at home, a chance to be part of tonight’s drama as it unfolds into the wee hours.
So in summary:
Tell me the question and who it’s for
I will ask the question and film the outcome
The video is uploaded on the UTV liveblog
And you (hopefully) get your answer.
easy!
How til vote and who fer. #geni
M-m-making your mind up.
I have no idea who to vote for. I don’t even know how I’m going to decide how to vote, but I have several options. Read more…
Paula Bradshaw explains the secret to winning south Belfast
And that secret is…Alliance’s Anna Lo.
As we wait for Cameron to arrive, UCUNF’s Paula explains.
Polls apart.
As Chekov points out, serious questions need to be asked about the validity of a DUP-linked poll carried out on behalf of the Belfast Telegraph.
Slugger O’Toole blogger Michael Shilliday (UUP member) hit out at the strong DUP links with the public affairs company Inform Communications. He highlights the fact that one of the directors, Ross Williamson, has strong ties to the DUP – even going as far as penning a letter to the Ulster Star supporting Jeffrey Donaldson only last month.
Ah but timing is a wonderful thing.
The News Letter reports a new poll by LucidTalk, which states that Reg Empey is on track to win South Antrim back from the DUP.
The same company ran a poll for Toals which was covered by Mark Devenport. And as both Mark and the News Letter point out, this polling director has political links as well.
Mr White, who formerly worked for national polling company YouGov, is chairman of South Belfast Ulster Unionist association but said that had no bearing on his company’s poll.
And who commissioned the poll?
The poll, carried out by local polling company LucidTalk over the weekend for political website Slugger O’Toole,
But how did the News Letter scoop the results before Slugger even published them?
Update: Slugger explains.
Sarah’s Law aka ‘where dem pitchforks at?’
It’s been previously reported that the introduction of the controversial Sarah’s Law is now in the hands of Northern Ireland’s new (but already ignored?) Justice Minister David Ford. Read more…
Green Party snubbed
North Down candidate Steven Agnew has criticised BBC Northern Ireland after the Green Party was left out of a Politics Show debate which featured all 6 of the other Northern Irish political parties.
In a late night press release, Agnew called on the BBC to explain their decision.
“One MLA and three councillors were elected as Greens and our vote is increasing with every election. Yet there was a party represented on that panel that has never had anybody elected so I cannot understand why the BBC snubbed us. During the European election the equivalent debate had a massive impact on the result. The BBC has denied the voters of Northern Ireland the opportunity to hear our views. We have contacted them for an explanation but we are yet to recieve a response.”
SF crisis – work in progress
Mark has kick-started an interesting debate over on Slugger about Sinn Fein’s hidden crisis. 19 SF councillors have resigned in the most recent ‘electoral cycle’. Below I’ve tried to find reports of the councillors’ reasons for quitting and what it paints is two different stories of two different parties. One of dissatisfaction with the party structure in the south, and one of dissatisfaction with policing and justice measures in the north.
Please fill in the gaps if you can find a link!
Dessie Ward – no longer defend the party’s left-wing political position.
Padraig McShane
Briege Meehan – child abuse allegations
Domhnall O’Cobhthaigh – “contradiction between the nationalist and socialist agendas within Sinn Fein”
Gerry McHugh – Disaffection with Assembly power balance
Bernice Swift – resigned from the Council over Sinn Féin’s changed attitude to policing
Barry Monteith – does not believe the party’s political strategy will lead to a united Ireland
Gerard Foley
Michael Tallon
Poilin Ui Cathain – Sinn Fein’s support of PSNI
Killian Forde -Jumps ship to Labour after poor election
Christy Burke – differences?
John Dwyer – Irish election fallout
Louise Minihan – Irish election fallout
Thomas Pringle – could no longer participate in the party structure
Ian Dooley – lost his appetite for the job
Martin Connolly
Oliver Hughes – lack of internal party democracy
Patsy Groogan - lack of internal party democracy
“People say that you’ll die faster than without water.”
I love this.
Herrbenz captured a unique moment during a particularly stinkin’ afternoon in Dublin.
Arcade Fire – Rebellion (Lies)
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Election connections.
This is what I’ve been mainly following the past few weeks. I’m sure I’ve missed some out. Feel free to add your own blogs in the comments below.
Splintered Sunrise – I have a big of a blogger crush on Splintered at the moment. This is the number one place to find constituency info for this election and get an idea about how everything might pan out on the 6th May. The level of detail, insight and good, funny writing on this site is impressive.
Slugger O’Toole – Ye old faithful of NI political discussion. Wade through the next fortnight’s whataboutery and you’ll be laughing. New improved site as well, with more improvements promised.
Ulster’s Doomed! – Has to be up there for the best blog name of all time. Seems to keep catching seasoned journos out on the boundary changes. Keep an eye.
Three Thousand Versts of Loneliness, BobBalls and Hand Of History should be followed as well.
And last but not least - 1690 an’ all thon – the essential Ulster Scots take on the election.
So who are you following?
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